The political situation in Mexico is dictated by the coming general election (2nd June 2024) that will elect the president, 128 senators, 500 deputies and 20,079 local positions (9 governorships, municipal presidencies and thousands of councillors).

 There are three important presidential candidates:

  • Claudia Sheinbaum (MORENA, PVEM, PT), one of the founders of MORENA, Mayor of Mexico City (2018-23), supported by the coalition 4 Transformation (4T) Sigamos Haciendo Historia

  • Xochitl Galvez (PRI, PAN, PRD); senator for the PAN, supported by coalition Frente Amplio (she was mayor of Miguel Hidalgo in Mexico City), and appointed by Vicente Fox as director of National Institute of Indigenous Peoples.

  • Jorge Alvarez Maynez (Movimiento Ciudadano), a small party whose position is that the ‘old politics’ (PRI, PAN, PRD, including MORENA) ought to make way for the young, like himself. His candidacy aims at getting votes away from the 4T.

In the 2018 election, the coalition led by AMLO won the presidency with 53% of the vote; the PAN candidate, Ricardo Anaya, scored 22%, and the PRI candidate, Jose Meade, got 16%, plus an Independent, Jaime Rodriguez, with 5%. MORENA and allies got a total of 69 senators, the PRI-led coalition 21, and the PAN-led coalition 38. With regards to Congress, MORENA got 308 deputies, the PRI-led 63, and the PAN-led 129.

In terms of the popular vote, AMLO’s coalition (AMLO, acronym for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador by which Mexico’s current president is widely known) won in 31 of the 32 states, the only exception was Guanajuato. Plus, AMLO’s presidency enjoyed absolute majorities in both houses of parliament until the federal election for Congress in June 2021.

In the 2021 mid-terms, MORENA-led coalition got 278 deputies, and the PAN-PRI-PRD coalition got 199 (a slight increase of 7 deputies). Despite the 4T’s strong electoral performance, the right-wing coalition (PAN-PRI-PRD) stopped a bunch of PRI deputies from giving AMLO a qualified majority in parliament, that had allowed the passing of constitutional reforms. And the novelty was the 23 deputies of Movimiento Ciudadano.

Insofar as governorships is concerned, in 4 years (2018-22) the AMLO-led coalition took away 21 governorships out of 32 from the PRI, PAN and PRD and in 2022, by adding the PVEM, the figure was 22, leaving the PAN with 5, PRI with 3, and MC with 2. Furthermore, in June 2022, at elections in 6 governorships MORENA won 4 (the other 2 were obtained by the PRI-PAN-PRD alliance), increasing its total to 25.

In June 2023 there were elections for the State of Mexico which went to MORENA, increasing its total to 26 in an election won by Delfina Gomez, the first time in 94 years the PRI lost control over the State of Mexico, and the first time ever a woman was elected to this position.